Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) and The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019)
Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.
It does seem to be heating up.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-04/taiwan-preparing-for-war-with-china/100511294
At least it looks like that here in Australia.
Stan Grant and the ABC are (IMHO) a bit to the left of centre but they still see the invasion of Taiwan as a real possibility.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-05/taiwan-foreign-minister-warn-war-china-global-geopolitical-order/100511960
Well…..to quote from the second article: “War is not imminent, despite Xi’s provocation. But Joseph Wu Warned that the Chinese President is under pressure at home and could manufacture a crisis to divert attention.”
Kind of like Argentina did over Falklands?
Another article here:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/white-house-puts-china-on-notice/ar-AAP8uyj?ocid=msedgntp
To quote:
“A recent survey by the Eurasia Group Foundation (EGF) found that a small plurality of respondents, 42.3 percent, favored the U.S. defending Taiwan militarily, while 41.6 percent were unsure. The views differed slightly based on political parties, with over half of Republicans in favor of the U.S. defending Taiwan, while 39.4 percent of Democrats agreed to come of Taipei’s defense.”
There are a few other things going on:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-china-trade-conflict-remains-frozen-11633438550?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-shipping-container-shortages-leave-093000653.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
https://news.yahoo.com/china-power-shortage-threatens-supply-110000507.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
Oh…another article: https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/07/politics/us-submarine-collision-south-china-sea/index.html
Quote:
So…how should I interpret this?
1. We are safe until 2025 (meaning they are not ready before then)?
2. Or….it is going to happen in 2025?
I expect regional governments would have to take the treat seriously. It sounds like China will probably attempt a military takeover in 2025 or thereafter, if the current threats do not succeed in making Taiwan capitulate. Hong Kong was taken over (i.e. the democratic government was shut down) and so there is precedent for a takeover. IMHO it does not sound like an idle threat at all.
I do think the threat needs to be taken seriously. I don’t think China will attempt it by 2025. They sort of need a large modern air force capable of contesting the skies with the United States. That they do not have.
More China news:
https://news.yahoo.com/china-fully-able-invade-taiwan-185429391.html
“Chiu’s military believe that 2025 will mark the maturity of China’s anti-intervention and blockage capability around the Taiwan Strait…”
Now….does “anti-intervention and blockade” mean “invasion?”
Oh, and we do have some presence in Taiwan. Not sure it is very big:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/taiwan-vows-to-defend-freedom-at-all-costs-qkdcmktxj
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/07/taiwan-us-military-trainers-china
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-troops-rotating-into-taiwan-training-sources-2021-10-07/
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/northamerica/top-stories/how-us-troops-in-taiwan-add-even-more-fuel-to-the-china-us-tinderbox/ar-AAPhj9n?ocid=BingNewsSearch
China is calling for U.S. troops to leave:
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2021/10/08/taiwan-China-US-troops-Taiwan/8511633718216/
Of course, China wants “peaceful reunification”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-emphasizes-peaceful-reunification-with-taiwan-days-after-record-show-of-force-11633769442
More assessment:
https://news.yahoo.com/starting-fire-u-china-enter-150049722.html
None of this really changes my opinion on the likelihood of an invasion.
From a logical point of view it does not seem likely. However emotional and egocentric motives may provide a stronger motivation for invasion in the longer term (after 2025) as this article points out.
cl
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-10/china-xi-jinping-attacking-taiwan-about-identity-so-dangerous/100524868