Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 58

This is weekly update number 58 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) decreased to only 1,981 new cases. This lower than it was forty-five weeks ago. There were 3,676 new cases last week. Sixteen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 7K new cases for yesterday. The UK has brought it under control with 2K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France now has reported more cases of Coronavirus than the UK or Russia, making them the fourth highest in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Their death count of 107,096 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, India, Mexico, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 127,890 dead in a population of 66.8 million or Italy with 123,282 deaths in a population of 60.3 million. Yesterday they reported for France 20K new cases, so they do appear to be getting this back under control. The new case count yesterday for Spain is 5K, for Germany it is 20K and Russia remains at 8K (not that I particularly trust the Russian figures and will blog about this soon). The U.S. (population 331.4 million), which has never gotten the virus under control, had 34K new cases yesterday, which is an improvement over last week. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (17), Japan (6,360 and rising), South Korea (635), Taiwan (11), Vietnam (82), Singapore (25), Australia (8) and New Zealand (2 on 9 May).

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 9:20 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….48,041…….48,282…1,104
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,156……15,239……252
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,700……11,759…….133
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……76,144……76,460….1,070
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….425………..430…….…8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..……….552………..556………19
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….27,483…….27,686……274
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….44,806…….45,064……479
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,289………4,296…….47
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,215………1,217……..12
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960…….11,155……..11,239……..74
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..2,109………2,122……..22
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……70,075……70,298….1,521
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……83,504……83,987….1,442
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425….396,654.…398,635…..6,457


This is a 1% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area two weeks ago was 1.64%. Due to technical difficulties I was unable to get the death counts for any fo these locales the last two weeks except for DC (which is up to 1,113). Therefore deaths from two weeks ago are still reported. Two weeks ago there were 52 new fatalities reported out of 4,620 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.13%. The population known to have been infected is 7.43% or one confirmed case for every 13 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. It is clear that now that number vaccinated and the number previously infected is 70-80% of the population of the area and as a result we are seeing a noticeable and sudden decline in cases.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville, Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. They are now emptying out and the semester is ending. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) as they are located in or near major population centers. Again, I have not been able to get updated death figures for the last two weeks.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 6,477 cases (6,465 last week) and 94 deaths, while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,739 cases (6,712 last week) and 105 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 4,010 cases (4,013 last week) and 55 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 5,760 cases (5,739 last week) and 82 deaths. This is where UVA is located. One notes with similar populations the comparison between Harrisonburg/Rockingham vs Charlottesville/Albemarle.

For UVA, https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker, after peaking at 229 new cases on 2/16, they had imposed new restrictions. The number of cases dropped precipitously and they partially eased up the restrictions. This Monday (5/10) there were only 2 new cases. It does show what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures. They are also starting to vaccinate the students there. They have also last week loosened the indoor restrictions to 25 students from the previous restriction of 6 students. So far there has been no increase in the number of cases as a result.

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 7,744 cases (7,650 last week) cases and 146 deaths.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 9,363 cases (9,320 last week) and 89 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

I do report the population, number of cases and number of deaths for each of these areas. This is because this is somewhat of a “laboratory-like” situation where you have four universities of 23K to 36K students located in rural areas of around 100K population. They do have different rates per capita in cases and in deaths.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had only 600 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 779 cases. Fifteen weeks ago it was 4,707. 

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,114 cases (2,087 last week) and 10 deaths.