This is weekly update number 55 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) decreased to 4,753 new cases. There were 6,734 new cases last week. Thirteen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.
Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 12K new cases for yesterday. The UK looks like it has brought it under control with 3K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France now has reported more cases of Coronavirus than the UK or Russia, making them the fourth highest in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Their death count of 101,714 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, Mexico, India, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 127,557 dead in a population of 66.8 million or Italy with 117,633 deaths in a population of 60.3 million. Yesterday they reported for France 44K new cases. They appear to have lost control of the situation. The new case count for Spain is 21K on 2/19, for Germany it is 31K and Russia remains at 8K (not that I particularly trust the Russian figures). The U.S. (population 331.4 million), which has never gotten the virus under control, had 55K new cases yesterday, which is an improvement over last week. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (29 cases), Japan (4,973 and on the rise), South Korea (731, same as last week), Taiwan (2), Vietnam (9), Singapore (14), Australia (20) and New Zealand (2).
The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases forty-two weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 10:20 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….46,209……46,869……1,097
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..….14,697…….14,861…..…249
Alexandria VA……………160,530……11,348…….11,491..……133
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.…..73,751…….74,708..…1,064
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.………406………..415……..….9
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..………532……….539…….….18
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……26,379……26,795……..274
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011……43,368…….43,957……..480
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,242…..…4,278…….…46
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,177…….1,184………..12
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……10,560…..10,789…….….72
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….1,961…….2,004…….…22
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……68,377…..68,945……1,501
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……80,598…..81,523…..1,428
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..383,605…388,358…..6,405
This is a 1% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.65%. This last week there were 47 new fatalities reported out of 4,753 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.99%. The population known to have been infected is 7.24% or one confirmed case for every 14 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I don’t have a report of how many people have been vaccinated in this DC area, but I have heard that half the U.S. has already gotten their first shot. So we are certainly looking at 50-60% who have had their first shot (I have had both of mine) and we are looking at 60-70% of the DC area having either been infected or vaccinated.
Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville, Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions at the beginning of February. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) as they are located in or near major population centers.
Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 6,377 cases (6,305 last week) and 94 deaths, while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,572 cases (6,477 last week) and 104 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.
Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 3,944 cases (3,936 last week) and 55 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 5,555 cases (5,448 last week) and 82 deaths. This is where UVA is located. One notes with similar populations the comparison between Harrisonburg/Rockingham vs Charlottesville/Albemarle.
For UVA (https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker), after peaking at 229 new cases on 2/16, they had imposed new restrictions. The number of cases dropped precipitously and they partially eased up the restrictions. This Monday (4/19) there were 10 new cases. It does show what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures. They are also starting to vaccinate the students there.
Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 7,465 cases (7,415 last week) cases and 145 deaths.
Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 9,140 cases (9,021 last week) and 88 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.
I do report the population, number of cases and number of deaths for each of these areas. This is because this is somewhat of a “laboratory-like” situation where you have four universities of 23K to 36K students located in rural areas of around 100K population. They do have different rates per capita in cases and in deaths.
Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,236 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 2,048 cases. Twelve weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.
Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,054 cases (2,026 last week) and 9 deaths.
