In general the number of cases from coronavirus remains the same as it was last week. It is still high and needs to come down further. This is weekly update number 51 on the coronavirus in the DC area.
This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 4,811 new cases. There were 5,549 new cases last week. Nine weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases. Twenty weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases.
Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 29K new cases reported for yesterday, an increase from last week. The UK is actually bringing it under control for a change with 5K yesterday, the same as last week. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France now has reported more cases of Coronavirus than the UK, although their death count of 93,065 (population 67.4 million) is less than the UK with 126,523 dead in a population of 66.8 million. Yesterday they reported for France (15K), Spain (6K), Germany (21K) and Russia (8K). The U.S. (population 331.4 million), which has never gotten the virus under control, had 53K new cases yesterday. This is about the same as the last three weeks (54K, 55K and 57K) but an improvement from the high of 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (22 cases), Japan (1,517), South Korea (425), Taiwan (5 on 3/15), Vietnam (3 on 3/22), Singapore (13), Australia (10) and New Zealand (8).
The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty-eight weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 9:26 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….42,730…..43,488……..1,051
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..….13,729…..13,915………..243
Alexandria VA……………160,530……10,643…..10,784……….128
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.…..69,041…..70,096…….1,034
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.………370………378…………10
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..………507………509…………17
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……24,197….24,659……….263
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….40,625….41,153…….…467
Manassas…………………..41,641..……..4,089……4,120…………45
Manassas Park………….…17,307….……1,145……1,153……..…12
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………9,858……9,970……..…68
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..1,825…..1,844……..…22
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……65,053….65,686……1,461
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……75,719….76,587……1,376
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..359,531…364,342……6,197
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This is a 1% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.70%. This last week there were 28 new fatalities reported out of 4,811 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.58%. A couple of municipalities dropped their count of deaths this week. The population known to have been infected is 6.79% or one confirmed case for every 15 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I don’t have a good report of how many people have been vaccinated in this DC area, but I gather at least 20% have had their first shot. So we are looking at 40-50% of the DC area having either been infected or vaccinated.
Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville. Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions at the beginning of February. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and VCU as they are located in or near major population centers.
Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 6,077 cases (5,961 last week) and 95 deaths (up 24 in the last four weeks), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,280 cases (6,187 last week) and 102 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.
Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 3,771 cases (3,738 last week) and 53 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 5,176 cases (5,081 last week) and 76 deaths (up 28 in the last four weeks). This is where UVA is located.
For UVA (https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker), after peaking at 229 new cases on 2/16, they had imposed new restrictions. The number of cases dropped precipitously and they partially eased up the restrictions. This Monday (3/22) there were 11 new cases. It does show what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures.
Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 7,056 cases (6,986 last week) cases and 141 deaths (81 deaths these in the last nine weeks).
Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 8,642 cases (8,460 last week) and 86 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.
Note I to report the population, number of cases and number of deaths for each of these areas. This is because this is somewhat of a “laboratory-like” situation where you have four universities of 23K to 36K students located in rural areas of around 100K population. They do have different rates per capita in cases and in deaths. Â
Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,267 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 1,276 cases. Eight weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.
Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,948 cases (1,906 last week) and 8 deaths.
