In general the number of cases from coronavirus remains the same as it was last week. It is still high and needs to come down further. This is weekly update number 49 on the coronavirus in the DC area.
This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 5,774 new cases. There were 5,255 new cases last week. Seven weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases. Eighteen weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases.
Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 20K new cases reported for yesterday. The UK is actually bringing it under control for a change (6K yesterday). Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. Yesterday they reported for France (23K), Spain (4K), Germany (7K) and Russia (9K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 57K new cases yesterday. This is about the same as last week (55K) but an improvement from the high of 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (26 cases), Japan (1,175), South Korea (470), Taiwan (1), Vietnam (2), Singapore (6), Australia (13) and New Zealand (1).
The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty-six weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 10:26 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….40,767……41,910…….1,037
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..13,215…..13,481…..…..240
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….10,352…..10,468………..127
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……66,825…..67,945…….1,027
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.………..353………360….………9
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..………..492………501……..…16
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….23,183…..23,589……….260
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011……..39,472….40,055……….459
Manassas…………………..41,641..………4,010……4,054…………42
Manassas Park………….…17,307….……1,126……1,129…………12
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………9,620……9,715…………68
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..1,785……1,798…………22
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……63,499…..64,273…….1,435
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……73,509…..74,704…….1,346
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..348,208…353,982…….6,100
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This is a 2% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.72%. This last week there were 193 new fatalities reported out of 5,774 new cases. This is the highest we have seen. This is a mortality rate of 3.34%, but this high figure is clearly a result of the declining infection rate while the mortality figures are lagged. The population known to have been infected is 6.60% or one confirmed case for every 15 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher.
Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions a the beginning of February.
Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,822 cases (5,733 last week) and 94 deaths (up 23 in the last two weeks), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,135 cases (6,061 last week) and 101 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.
Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 3,679 cases (3,636 last week) and 46 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 4,979 cases (4,867 last week) and 74 deaths (up 26 in the last two weeks). This is where UVA is located.
UVA had good covid tracker website: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. Five weeks ago they recorded 82 new cases from Monday through Friday. Four weeks ago they recorded 238 new cases from Monday through Friday. Three weeks ago it was 737 new cases from Monday through Friday. Needless to say, they put in more stringent lock-down procedures, and the number of cases have been in decline since a peak of 229 new cases on 2/16. Two weeks ago there were 186 new cases from Monday through Friday and this last week there were 34 new cases from Monday through Friday. They have now relaxed some of the lock down procedures. What is surprising about this is how rapidly it rose and how rapidly it declined. This Monday (3/8) there were only 6 new cases from a peak of 229 less than three weeks ago. It sort of shows what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures.
Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 6,948 cases (6,922 last week) cases and 141 deaths (81 deaths these in the last seven weeks).
Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 8,133 cases (7,751 last week) and 89 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.
Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,537 cases yesterday. Last week it as 1,385 cases. Six weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.
Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,878 cases (1,862 last week) and 8 deaths.
