Well, in general the number of cases from coronavirus has continued at a lower rate but we do not see a continual decline everywhere. It did decline locally, but not for all of the United States. It is still high and needs to come down further. This is weekly update number 48 on the coronavirus in the DC area.
This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by only 5,255 new cases. There were 5,977 new cases last week. Six weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases. Seventeen weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases.
Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 17K new cases reported for yesterday. The UK is actually bringing it under control for a change (6K yesterday). Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. Yesterday they reported for France (23K), Spain (16K on 3/1), Germany (6K) and Russia (10K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 55K new cases yesterday. This is improvement from last week (71K) and an improvement from the high of 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (23 cases), Japan (922), South Korea (444), Taiwan (1 on 2/28), Vietnam (11), Singapore (8), Australia (2) and New Zealand (2). Still, the number of new cases is down almost everywhere, which is good news.
The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty-five weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 9:25 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….39,844….40,767……..1,019
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..12,974….13,215………..232
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….10,229….10,352………..120
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……65,718….66,825………..956
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….342……….353…………..8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..……….482………492…………13
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….22,816…..23,183………246
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….38,920…..39,472………424
Manassas…………………..41,641..……..3,971…….4,010……….40
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,116……..1,126……….11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..9,418…..…9,620………68
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….1,747……..1,785………21
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……62,767…….63,499….1,418
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……72,609…….73,509….1,331
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..342,953…..348,208….5,907
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This is a 2% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.70%. This last week there were 265 new fatalities reported out of 5,255 new cases. This is the highest we have seen. This is a mortality rate of 5.04%, but the high figure is clearly a result of the declining infection rate while the mortality figures are lagged. The population known to have been infected is 6.49% or one confirmed case for every 15 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.
Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions a the beginning of February.
Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,733 cases (5,652 last week) and 85 deaths (up 14 from last week), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,061 cases (5,991 last week) and 93 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.
Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 3,636 cases (3,529 last week) and 47 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 4,867 cases (4,759 last week) and 62 deaths (up 14 from last week). This is where UVA is located.
UVA had good covid tracker website: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. Four weeks ago they recorded 82 new cases from Monday through Friday. Three weeks ago they recorded 238 new cases from Monday through Friday. Two weeks ago it was 737 new cases from Monday through Friday. Needless to say, they put in more stringent lock-down procedures, and the number of cases have been in decline since a peak of 229 new cases on 2/16. This lasts week there were 186 new cases from Monday through Friday. They have now relaxed some of the lock down procedures. What is surprising about this is how rapidly is rose and how rapidly it declined. This Monday (3/1) there were only 13 new cases from a peak of 229 less than two weeks ago. It sort of shows what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures. Needless to say, I am not too impressed with what they are doing in Texas right now.
Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 6,922 cases (6,867 last week) cases and 125 deaths (65 deaths these last six weeks).
Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 7,751 cases (7,478 last week) and 80 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.
Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,385 cases yesterday. Last week it as 1,769 cases. Five weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.
Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,862 cases (1,838 last week) and 8 deaths.
