Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 41

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

Amid all the other drama in D.C, we are also setting new national records this last week for the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus. The same with the D.C. area.

This is weekly update number 41 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to maintain my very current and relevant picture.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 17,973 new cases. Last week it was 16,305 new cases. Ten weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 14K new cases reported for yesterday.  It remains high in the UK (46K yesterday), France (20K), Spain (25K), Germany (27K) and Russia (23K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 225K new cases yesterday. This is in contrast to places like China (175 cases), Japan (4,575), South Korea (561), Taiwan (4), Vietnam (5), Singapore (17), Australia (16) and New Zealand (6). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases twenty-eight weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of around 11 AM (forgot to check the time): Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….30,482……32,600……831
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..……9,420……10,277……187
Alexandria VA……………160,530………7,676……..8,307……..91
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.…..46,776…….50,705……720
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.….…..194……….210………..6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..….…..311………..342………10
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850….…14,973…..15,711…….165
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….27,297……28,987……268
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….3,025…….3,184……..29
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…….972…….1,004……….8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960….….5,684……..6,192……..30
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….1,106….…1,180……..12
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……48,864…..52,368…1,203
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……57,286…..60,972…1,151
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…254,066….272,039…4,711

This is a 7% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.73%. This last week, there were 159 new fatalities reported out of 17,973 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.88%. The population known to have been infected is 5.07% or one confirmed case for every 20 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Many of the students are now home until mid-to-late January.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 4,888 cases (4,593 last week) and 48 deaths, while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 4,737 cases (4,313 last week) and 54 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has 2,482 confirmed cases (2,303 last week) and 35 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has 3,366 confirmed cases (3,009 last week) and 34 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000.  

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has 5,040 cases and 60 deaths.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has 5,691 cases this week (5,398 last week) and 48 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Keep in mind all these increases in this towns is occurring while the universities are not in session. It is currently growing faster than it was when they were.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 4,561 cases yesterday. Last week it was 4,377. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,346 cases (1,167 last week) and 5 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.

Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.

His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) and The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019)

Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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