Weekly update number 36 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 15,790 new cases. This is highest we have seen for this area so far. Last week there were 10,892 new cases, the week before 11,293 new cases, and five weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. Around three months ago we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up. This has slide out of control and we are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.
In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 15K new cases reported for yesterday, down from the 23K reported two weeks ago. Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. In the UK (12K yesterday, down from 13K one week ago), France (14K up from 10K), Spain (17K on 11/7, up from 12K), Germany (29K, up from 25K) and Russia (26K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 216K new cases yesterday, up from 180K new cases last Wednesday. This is in contrast to places like China (112 cases), Japan (2,158), South Korea (677), Taiwan (2), Vietnam (10), Singapore (12), Australia (6) and New Zealand (3).Â
The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 twenty-three weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 1:28 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….21,842….23,854……..704
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………6,417…..7,062……..162
Alexandria VA……………160,530.…..…5,447……5,950………81
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….31,661….34,996…….629
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………..109……..128…………6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………..212…..…232………10
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..……10,302….11,270…….151
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011….….18,662….20,080…….237
Manassas…………………..41,641….……2,331……2,440………28
Manassas Park………….…17,307…………734….….776……….8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….3,366……3,811…….22
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.………..711……….795…..…6
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567………34,159…..37,194..1,000
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308………42,190….45,345…..969
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425……178,143…193,933..4,013
This is a 9% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.07%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. Last week, there were 103 new fatalities reported out of 15,790 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.65%, although there is a lag between increases in reported cases and increases in mortality. The population known to have been infected is 3.61% or one confirmed case for every 28 people.
Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Many of the students are now home until mid-to-late January.
Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 3,680 cases (3,493 last week) and 39 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 2,667 cases (2,343 last week) and 36 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.
Charlottesville, VA has 1,958 confirmed cases (1,864 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 2,161 confirmed cases (1,932 last week) and 27 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000. Apparently college students are more responsible than many adults.
Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 4,260 cases this week (3,950 last week) and 16 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.
Keep in mind all these increases in this towns is occurring while the universities are not in session. It is currently growing faster than it was when they were.
Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 3,860 cases yesterday. Last week it was 2,228. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down. But right now, only one of our 49 states appears to be containing the virus (Hawaii).
Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 744 cases (654 last week) and 4 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.
