Weekly update number 35 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 10,892 new cases. This is lower than last week, but it is still very high. Last week there were 11,293 new cases, the week before that 8,625 new cases, the week before that there were 7,348 new cases and the week before that 4,256 new cases. Around three months ago we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up. This has slide out of control and we are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.
In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 19K new cases reported for yesterday, down from the 23K reported a week ago. It is bad all across Europe, but appears to be improving. In the UK (13K yesterday, up from 11K one week ago), France (4K on 11/30, down from 10K), Spain (8K, down from 12K), Germany (25K, up from 16K) and Russia (26K, up from 24K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 180K new cases yesterday, up from 173K new cases the previous Tuesday. This is in contrast to places like China (91 cases), Japan (2,014, up from 1,232), South Korea (511, up from 382), Taiwan (4), Vietnam (4), Singapore (10), Australia (11) and New Zealand (1).Â
The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 twenty-two weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 10:26 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….20,516……21,842….690
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………5,994…….6,417….157
Alexandria VA……………160,530.…..…5,106…..…5,447…..77
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….29,566……31,661….624
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…………..97…….…109……..6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…………205……….212…….9
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..……..9,717……10,302….144
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011….….17,484……18,662….235
Manassas…………………..41,641….……2,250…….2,331……28
Manassas Park………….…17,307………….713………734….…8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….3,134..…..3,366……22
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…………674………711….…6
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……..32,005….34,159….966
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……..39,790….42,190…938
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425……167,251…178,143…3,910
This is a 7% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.19%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. Last week, there were 73 new fatalities reported out of 10,892 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.67%, although there is a lag between increases in reported cases and increases in mortality. The population known to have been infected is 3.32% or one confirmed case for every 30 people.
Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Many of the students are now home until mid-to-late January.
Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 3,493 cases (3,397 last week) and 37 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 2,343 cases (2,176 last week) and 37 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.
Charlottesville, VA has 1,864 confirmed cases (1,823 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,932 confirmed cases (1,840 last week) and 27 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000. Apparently college students are more responsible than many adults.
Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 3,950 cases this week (3,806 last week) and 16 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.
Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 2,228 cases yesterday. This is still not good although it is better than last week. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down. Â
Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 654 cases (597 last week) and 4 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.
