Nothing really new to report. Same-old-same-old. Tens of thousands of protestors this weekend, a couple of hundred protestors arrested, and the situation continues as before. It does not appear that either side is making much progress. It is not ramping up to push Lukashenko from power, and it is not dying down. On the other hand, the protest estimates for this weekend seems to be around 20,000 vice the hundred thousand they had on some weekends.
I have still not seen any analysis as to whether extended protests result in a higher probability of replacing the existing government. I guess this is something I could do if I wanted to stop work on my books for the next six months.
Anyhow, this protest has now gone on for three months, which is about as long as the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine went (2013-2014).
P.S. On the morning of 13 October Svetlana Tikhanovksaya, the main opposition leader, issued out a statement:
“The regime has 13 days to fulfill three prerequisites:
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Lukashenko must announce his resignation.
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Street violence must stop completely.
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All political prisoners must be released.
If our demands are not met by October 25, the whole country will peacefully take to the streets with the People’s Ultimatum. And on October 26, a national strike of all enterprises will begin, all roads will be blocked, sales in state stores will collapse.”
P. P.S. The picture of the detained protestor is from last month, I just happen to like it (“Beauty and the Beast”). She was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews
