One of the issues with evaluating the impact of Coronavirus is that determining the cause of death is at best uncertain, and varies depending on who is counting and what the rules are. The example I have used several times is the difference between Belgium (pop. 11.5 million), which has 181,511 reported cases and 10,278 deaths compared to Germany (pop. 83.1 million) which was 344,487 cases and 9,724 deaths. The coronavirus statistics are even more confusing for those countries will poor reporting systems or who deliberately manipulate the statistics. In the end, it will be an analysis of “excess deaths” that may really explain what has happened.
There is an excess death study done by the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC). The links to that are here:
ttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Also see the article summarizing a study at Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) that indicates that the number of deaths from coronavirus may be 50% higher:Â
Study is here:Â https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761?guestAccessKey=92828e1e-363a-491b-83af-ec3ce0cde3f6&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=101220
The actual number of reported cases for the U.S. (as of this morning) is 216,933. These studies strongly indicates that the U.S. reporting of deaths of somewhat close to reality. It is not an inflated count. It may be underreporting the extent of the tragedy.
I assume similar studies have been done for Belgium and Germany. An article addressing excess deaths in both countries is here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/10/15/how-excess-mortality-in-2020-compares-infographic/#5ed4902f67a2
They report that excess mortality for Belgium is +67.8 per 100,000 inhabitants, while for Germany it is +10.0. I gather that means for Belgium, with a population of 11.5 million, has 7,797 excess deaths (vice 10,728 reported coronavirus deaths). For Germany, with a population of 83.1 million, this is 8,310 excess deaths (vice 9,724 reported coronavirus deaths).Â
Excess mortality for the U.S. is given as +71.6. With a population of 330.5 million, this is 236,638 compared to 216,933 reported coronavirus deaths.
“I gather that means for Belgium, with a population of 11.5 million, has 7,797 excess deaths (vice 10,728 reported coronavirus deaths). For Germany, with a population of 83.1 million, this is 8,310 excess deaths (vice 9,724 reported coronavirus deaths). ”
Is my interpretation too. That the reported cov-19 deaths are HIGHER than the excess mortality in 2020 can have two reasons IMHO:
1) The excess mortality without cov-10 was in 2020 lower than the 5-years average, no heat wave in summer …..
2) The positive aspects of a lock down decrease the mortality, lower number of traffic or work accidents, lower number of heart attacks…
“I gather that means for Belgium, with a population of 11.5 million, has 7,797 excess deaths (vice 10,728 reported coronavirus deaths). For Germany, with a population of 83.1 million, this is 8,310 excess deaths (vice 9,724 reported coronavirus deaths). ”
Is my interpretation too. That the reported cov-19 deaths are HIGHER than the excess mortality in 2020 can have two reasons IMHO:
1) The excess mortality without cov-10 was in 2020 lower than the 5-years average, no heat wave in summer …..
2) The positive aspects of a lock down decrease the mortality, lower number of traffic or work accidents, lower number of heart attacks…