Weekly update number 27 on the coronavirus in the DC area, meaning I have been doing this post for over half a year. As it is “close to home,” I sort of feel a need to keep doing it.
This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by only 2,592 new cases. Last week there were 3,111 new cases. This is the first time in over three months that there has been less than 3,000 cases a week. This is good. Hopefully it will continue to decline.
In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 2,677 new cases for the day yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control. Still, as bad as it is in Italy, it is not as bad as the UK (15K cases yesterday), France (11K) or Spain (12K). The U.S., which had never gotten the virus under control, had 44K new cases yesterday.
The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 fourteen weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 9:23 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……….15,326…15,652….631
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………..3,995…..4,068…..152
Alexandria VA……………160,530………..3,852…..3,932….…71
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795………20,981…21,414……592
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772……………70……….72………7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………….137……140……….8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..………6,889….7,026…….126
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….12,567…12,811.…..208
Manassas…………………..41,641….……1,931….1,954……..24
Manassas Park………….…17,307..……….614……..616…….…8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………2,028…..2,081………18
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…..…..547….…553………..5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……22,584….23,135……850
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…..29,494….30,153…….831
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…121,015..123,607….3,531
This is a 2% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.86%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.30% or one confirmed case for every 43 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.”
Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Maybe one-third of the students at these universities are from Northern Virginia. UVA opened up for students three weeks ago. The other two universities opened up for students over a month ago. They have all had problems.
Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,739 cases (2,667 last week) and 34 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,558 cases (1,460 last week) and 22 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. A few weeks ago they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think was a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco. I gather JMU is about to re-open again for students. Hopefully they will do a better job this time.
Charlottesville, VA has 1,383 confirmed cases (1,246 last week) and 30 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,385 confirmed cases (1,306 last week) and 22 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They have been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last weeks, so the number of new cases is now stabilized.
Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 2,165 cases this week (1,997 last week) and 5 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.
Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) itself seems to be finally declining. It was running near a thousand new cases a day. It is down to 623 new cases yesterday.
Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 293 cases (272 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow.
