Coronavirus in the DC area – update 17

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. Not good news, the number of cases has increased by 4,077 new cases this last week. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 202 cases yesterday.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 four weeks ago. It has since increased. This is the highest so far.  All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 1:35:37 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……..11,529…..11,999…….584
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………2,750……2,857…….135
Alexandria VA……………160,530……….2,582……2,759………57
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795….…14,994….15,570……..519
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…..…..…54….…….54……..…6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…….…..73…………79……..…7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….…4,695..…..4,956…….109
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……..8,240.……8,724……168
Manassas…………………..41,641……..1,531….…1,586……….20
Manassas Park………….…17,307……….477..………493……..…7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..1,140.……1,227……..…7
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……….300….……340……..…2
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…..16,593……17,305……..787
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308…..20,958..…22,044…….733
Total……….…….………..5,365,425.…..85,916……89,993….3,141

This is a 5% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.49%, which is high. The population known to be infected is 1.68% or one confirmed case for every 60 people.

 

Also, of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 724 confirmed cases (638 last week) and 10 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 443 confirmed cases (367 last week) and 8 deaths. Montgomery County, VA has 260 cases this week (220 last week) and 3 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen when you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 187 cases (163 last week) and 1 death. The number of cases in all these areas is growing at a worrisome rate. Virginia itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now.

Below are the daily graphs for the District of Columbia, Virginia and Maryland:

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.

Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.

His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) and The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019)

Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

Articles: 1455

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