Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. Got a late start on it today as I was absorbed in creating tables for a book I am working on.
The number of reported cases in the DC area has been in steady decline for over a month, while many other areas of the United States it has been growing. The last couple of months had been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,500 new cases a week to less than 3,000 cases a week. This week it was 3,062 new cases, which is slightly lower than last week’s count of 3,104 new cases. These figures are higher then the previous week’s count of 2,681 and the low of 2,406 three weeks ago. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 190 cases yesterday. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 2:35:51 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:
……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……..11,026….11,529…….580
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……….2,677……2,750……135
Alexandria VA……………160,530……….2,486..….2,582….….56
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795….….14,653….14,994……502
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…..………54….……54…….…6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…….…….74………..73….……7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..…..…4,519……4,695..…..106
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…..…7,947……8,240.……164
Manassas…………………..41,641………1,497……1,531..……..20
Manassas Park………….…17,307…….….463………477..………7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………1,085….…1,140…….…6
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..…288…..….300…….…0
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….15,986…..16,593..….776
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308….…20,099…..20,958..….725
Total……….…….………..5,365,425.….…82,854…..85,916….3,090
This is a 4% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.60%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.60% or one confirmed case for every 62 people.
The Washington DC statistical area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia.
Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 638 confirmed cases (583 last week) and 10 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 367 confirmed cases (318 last week) and 8 deaths. Montgomery County, VA has 220 cases this week (201 last week) and 3 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen when you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 163 cases (124 last week) and 1 death. The number of cases in all these areas is growing at a worrisome rate.
