As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. I will be maintaining these updates on Wednesdays for a while. Again, all the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website (which I gather is also maintained in the DC area), as of 8:39:28 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from the post three weeks ago, two weeks ago, last week’s post followed by the number of cases this week. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:
……………………….….Population…..Week 3…Week 2…Week 1….Week 0…Deaths
Washington D.C…………..702,445……..507…….1,211……2,058… 3,098……..112
Arlington, VA…………..…..237,521…….104……….237………401……..625..…….22
Alexandria VA………….…160,530……….30…..…..126……..247……..462…………8
Fairfax County, VA……..1,150,795……..244……….532……1,207……2,077………37
Falls Church, VA……..…….14,772……………………………..….2………..24
Fairfax City, VA……..………24,574……………………………..…1…………22
Loudoun County, VA………406,850………87….……209…..…344……..468.………8
Prince Williams C., VA….…468,011…..….94….……236……..508………867……….1
Manassas…………………….41,641………………………………49………110
Manassas Park………….…..17,307………………………………13…………31
Stafford Country, VA………149,960…..….24….….….49…….…95………164
Fredericksburg, VA…….…..29,144…………1……….….8………14………..17
Montgomery C., MD….…1,052,567……..447…..……871..…1,883…….2,768..…116
Prince Georges C., MD….909,308……….403……..1,020……2,356…….3,734……118
Total……….…….…….…5,365,425….…1,941……..4,499……9,178……14,467……422
The number of cases appeared to be doubling at every locale each week for the last three weeks. This week, it only went up by half (actually 58%). So, this is a more positive trend. There were 23 deaths recorded three weeks ago, 76 two weeks ago, 222 last week and 422 this week.
The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.92%. The population known to be infected is 0.27%. or one confirmed case for every 371 people. As I suspect the real morality rate is 1% or lower, then probably about 1% of the area is infected.
From my observations, most people are doing a reasonable job of self isolating. Probably easier to do in this more spread out suburban area than in some cities. They do say that this area will become one of the next hotspots, but because it is spread out and primarily suburban, I don’t think it will be anything like New York. The fact that the rate of spread is already declining is a positive sign.
The Washington DC statistic area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places. Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 66 confirmed cases (50 last week) and Charlottesville, VA which has 41 confirmed cases (36 last week) and 1 death. Montgomery County, VA has 48 cases (33 last week). These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment.
