As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. Again, all the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website (which I gather is also maintained in the DC area), as of 7:25:19 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from the post two weeks ago, last week’s post followed by the number of cases this week. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:
……………………………………………Previous..Last……..New
………………………..….Population….Week……Week…..Cases……….Deaths
Washington D.C…………..702,445……..507…….1,211……2,058………..67
Arlington, VA…………..…..237,521…….104…….….237…..….401………….2
Alexandria VA………….…160,530……….30…..…..126………..247………….1
Fairfax County, VA……..1,150,795……..244………532….…1,207………..20
Falls Church, VA……..…….14,772……………………………………….2
Fairfax City, VA……..………24,574………………………………………1
Loudoun County, VA………406,850………87….…..209…..…344……………5
Prince Williams C., VA….…468,011…..….94….…..236……..508……………1
Manassas…………………….41,641……………………………………49
Manassas Park………….…..17,307……………………………………13
Stafford Country, VA………149,960…..….24….…….49…………95
Fredericksburg, VA…….…..29,144…..……1………….8…………14
Montgomery C., MD……1,052,567……..447…..…..871……1,883………..54
Prince Georges C., MD….909,308……..403……..1,020…….2,356……….72
Total……….…….……5,365,425..…1,941…….4,499…..9,178……..222
The number of cases appears to be doubling at every locale each week. This is not a good trend. Do not know if that is because of more spreading or better testing. There were 23 deaths recorded the week before last, last week it was 76, now it is 222.
The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.42% up from 1.69% last week and 1.18% the previous week. The population known to be infect is 0.17%. or one confirmed case for every 585 people. From my observations, most people are doing a reasonable job of self isolating. Probably easier to do in this more spread out suburban area than in some cities. They do say that this area will become one of the next hotspots, but because it is spread out and primarily suburban, I don’t think it will be anything like New York. Still, right now, the number of cases are doubling each week.
The Washington DC statistic area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places. But of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 50 confirmed cases and Charlottesville, VA which has 36 confirmed cases and 1 death. Montgomery County, VA has 33 cases.
Here’s the latest thinking (4/19/2020) of Lou Weiner, M.D. (Georgetown Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center):
I think this will be an important week in the DC area with respect to the load of the pandemic. By the end of the week we will know if we are headed to a true surge (I tend to think not), a decline in new cases (I am hopeful, but not necessarily optimistic in that regard) or a continued plateau (this is my best guess).