Coronavirus in the DC area

As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. Again, all the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website (which I gather is also maintained in the DC area), as of 10:51:42 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

 

……………………………….Population….Cases….Deaths

Washington D.C…………..702,445……..507………9

Arlington, VA………………..237,521……..104………2

Alexandria VA………………160,530……….30

Fairfax County, VA……..1,150,795……..244………2

Falls Church, VA…………….14,772

Fairfax City, VA………………24,574

Loudoun County, VA……..406,850………..87………1

Prince Williams C., VA……468,011……….94………1

Manassas……………………….41,641

Manassas Park………………..17,307

Stafford Country, VA……….149,960……….24

Fredericksburg, VA…………..29,144…………1

Montgomery C., MD……..1,052,567……..447……..1

Prince Georges C., MD……909,308……..403……..7

Total…………………………5,365,425….1,941…….23

 

The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.18%. The population known to be infect is 0.04%. or one confirmed case for every 2,764 people. From my observations, most people are doing a reasonable job of self isolating. Probably easier to do in this more spread out suburban area than in some cities.

 

The Washington DC statistic area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.

Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.

His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) and The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019)

Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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One comment

  1. Chris, speaking of the effects of self-isolating, here’s an observation from the Director of Georgetown Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center (who also mentioned in a Zoom meeting that I attended during the afternoon that 2 patients have died from the virus at MedStar Georgetown University Hospital):

    “I saw an interesting graph today, tracking social distancing measures (based on cell phone location data) in DC vs. documented new cases. Interestingly, as sheltering in place has basically taken hold, the expected surge in new cases so far appears to be blunted (perhaps). Wouldn’t it be nice if that turns out to be a prophetic observation? We will see.”

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