Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 7

Could not update my post yesterday on the subject because the CSSE database was struggling to keep up with all the new reports. There has been an explosion of cases in Europe, although that may be due to better testing.

The coronavirus is now affecting my life, with my son’s school closed down until April 10, my wife’s business trip to Europe next week was cancelled, the NHL has cancelled all their games and the Australian Grand Prix has been cancelled. Now what? I guess I will do another blog post….about the virus.

China continues to report very few cases. For the last four days they have consistently reported 80.9K to 81K cases. So it is only growing by a couple of dozen cases a day. Yesterday it was 80,945, now it is 80,976, or 31 more cases. If the data is correct, then it appears that they have brought this under control even though they have had over 80,000 cases. So, it does appear possible to do. The virus is now expanding faster in several other countries in the world and the number of cases outside of China will soon exceed the number of cases inside of China.

Country…….…Cases……Deaths……Rate

World Wide……149,293….5,609…..…3.76%

China.………..…80,976…..3,189…..…3.94%

Italy…………..…17,660…..1,266…..….7.17%

Iran……………..12,729…..…611…..….4.80%

S. Korea…………8,086………72…..….0.89%

Spain………….…6,023..……191………3.17%

Germany…………3,953……….8……….0.20%

France……………3,667………79……….2.15%

United States……2,177………47…..….2.16%

Switzerland………1,359………..8……….0.59%

United Kingdom…1,143……….21………1.84%

Ten countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. They are mostly European. Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.

Country……..…Cases……Deaths……Rate

Norway………..….996..…………1………0.10%

Sweden…..……….944……..……2….…..0.21%

Denmark..…….…..836…..………0…..….0%

Netherlands.………804.………..10.….….1.24%

Japan………………725..……..…21.…..…2.90%

Belgium….…….….689……..……4…..…..0.58%

Austria……………..602..…………1……….0.17%

Qatar..………….….337..…………0…..…..0%

Australia……………250..……….…3…..…..1.20%

Finland….…..……..223……..……0…..…..0%

Bahrain………….…210……..……0…..…..0%

Singapore…..……..200……..……0…..…..0%

Canada……..…….198……………1…..…..0.51%

Malaysia….…..…..197……………0……….0%

Greece..….….……190……………1…..…..0.53%

Israel…….…….….164…………….0…..…..0%

Iceland……………156…..……..…0……….0%

Brazil………………151…..…..……0……….0%

Czech Rep……..…150……………0…..…..0%

Slovenia….……….141…..…..……0…..…..0%

Hong Kong…….….140…..,….……4………2.11%

Portugal.…..….…..112…..….……0……….0%

Estonia…..…………109……………0….…..0%

Romania……………102……………0…..…..0%

Iraq…..……….……101..……………9……….8.91%

Kuwait……….….…100..…….……0….…….0%

Philippines……..……98…..……..…8………..8.16%

Indonesia….……..…96…..……..…2………..2.08%

Lebanon………….…93..….…….…3………..3.23%

Egypt…………..……93……………2………..2.15%

Ireland………………90…..…..……1.……….1.11%

India…….….…..……87……….……2.…….…2.30%

Saudi Arabia……..….86…..….……0…………0%

UAE…………….….…85……………0….……..0%

Poland…………….….84……………2…….…..2.38%

Thailand.…..…………82………….…1……..…1.22%

San Marino….…..…..80…………….5…….…..6.25%

Vietnam….……..……53…..…..……0…….…..0%

Taiwan………..…..….53…..……..…1….……..1.89%

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than 50 cases so far:

Russia…….…………..47…..….……0…..……..0%

Pakistan………………28…..….……0…..……..0%

Palestine…..…….……26?…………..0…..……..0%

Mexico…….….……….15……………0…..……..0%

Afghanistan….……..…11……………0…..……..0%

New Zealand……….…..5………….…0…………..0%

Ukraine…………..……..1…..…….…1………..100%

North Korea..…………..0…..…….…0…………..0%

Syria……….………..…..0…..…….…0…………..0%

Diamond Princess……696…….…….7…………..1.01%

Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/14/20 as of 11:33.17 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

1. It does appear that the mortality rate is around or below 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
   1. Still the S. Korean mortality rate has continued to increase over the last few days and is nearing 1%
   2. Most other countries with a reported rate of less than 1% I suspect have just recently gotten a number of new cases and these figures will be unfortunately changing over time (for example Germany).
2. If mortality really is around 1% or less, then it appears there are already over 120,000 in cases Italy and over 60,000 cases in Iran.
3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 80 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.24% infected.
   1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 1 case in around 1,000 people (0.10%)
   2. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 17,660 cases is third (0.029%)
      1. If they really have over 120,000 case then we are looking at around 0.2%, a figure similar to San Marino.
   3. South Korea with 51,709,098 people and 8,086 cases is fourth (0.016)
4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database.
5. Palestine was reported on Wednesday to have 26 cases. Now the CSSE database does not report on Palestine. Not sure where those 26 cases went to. Are they reported under Israel?

On the graph at the top of this post, the top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 72,042 out of 149,293 cases (and 5,609 deaths). The bottom line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China). This bottom line is to aiming to cross the other two lines over the next couple of weeks.