Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 5

The latest update on the mortality rates for the coronavirus. This has slid out of control in a number of countries, in particular Italy, Iran and the United States. If the reporting is correct, China does seem to have mostly contained the virus, and this may well be the case with South Korea. In China on 1 March they were reporting 79.8K cases. As of today, they are reporting 81K cases. This is an expansion of around 1,200 cases or an average of 109 cases a day over the last 11 days. So, while not completely under control, if the data is correct, this is a good effort considering that they have had over 80,000 cases. The virus is now expanding faster in several other countries in the world and the number of cases outside of China will soon exceed the number of cases inside of China.

Country………….Cases……..Deaths……..Rate

World Wide……….124,908…….4,591….……3.68%

Italy…………..…….12,462…..……827……….6.64%

Iran…………………9,000….……..354……….3.93%

S. Korea…..………7,755..…..……..61……….0.79%

Spain………………2,231..…..…..…54…….…2.42%

Germany………..…1,908……….……3……….0.16%

France……………..1,784….…….…33…..…..1.85%

United States…..…1,135..…..….….30….…….2.64%

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than 70 cases so far:

Lebanon…………..…61..…………3…………..4.91%

India……….……..……60…..….……0.….……..0%

San Marino……..…..60…..….…….2…..……..6.67%

Egypt……………..…..60…..….……1…..……..1.69%

Brazil……..……..……37…..….……0…..……..0%

Vietnam….……..……35…..….……0…..……..0%

Indonesia….…..……34…..….……1…..……..2.94%

Palestine…..…..……26…..….……0…..……..0%

Saudia Arabia……….21…..….……0…..……..0%

Russia…….…………..20…..………0…..……..0%

Pakistan………..……19…..….……0…..……..0%

Afghanistan…….…….7……………0…..……..0%

Mexico…….…………..7…….………0…..……..0%

New Zealand….……..5…….………0…..……..0%

Ukraine………………..1…..……..…0…..……..0%

North Korea..………..0…..……..…0…..……..0%

Syria……….…………..0…..……..…0…..……..0%

Diamond Princess…696…….……..7…..……..1.01%

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/11/20 as of 4:13.43 PM EST. This is the third time I have updated this post today. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

1. It does appear that the mortality rate is below 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
   1. Still the S. Korean mortality rate has continued to increase over the last few days.
2. If mortality really is less than 1%, then it appears there are already over 60,000 in Italy.
3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 60 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.178% infected.
   1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 1 case in around 1,000 people (0.100%)
   2. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 12,462 cases is third (0.021%)
   3. South Korea with 51,709,098 people and 7,755 cases is fourth (0.015)
4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database.

On the graph at the top of this post, the top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 66,702 out of 124,908 cases (and 4,591 deaths). The bottom line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China). This bottom line is to aiming to cross the other two lines over the next couple of weeks.