Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 3

Another partial update on the mortality rates for the coronavirus. In my last update (29 Feb) I listed all countries with more than 60 cases. They all now have more than a hundred cases.

Country…………………….Cases……..Deaths………..Rate

World Wide…………………94,250…….3,214……………3.41%

S. Korea……………………..5,621………..28…………….0.50%

Iran……………………………2,922………..92…………….3.15%

Italy………………………..…2,502………..79…………….3.16%

Japan…………………………..304…………6.……………1.97%

Germany………………………244…………0……………..0%

France…………………………212…………4……………..1.89%

Spain….…………………….…193…………1……………..0.52%

United States…………..…….128…….……9……………..7.03%

Singapore……………………..110…………0……………..0%

Hong Kong………………..….102…………2……………..1.96%

Switzerland………………..……93…………0……………..0%

Kuwait…….………………..……56…………0……………..0%

United Kingdom…………..……53…………0……………..0%

Malaysia…..………………..….50…………0……………..0%

Bahrain…..………………….….49…………0……………..0%

Cruise Ships……….…….…..706…………6……………..0.85%

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/04/20 as of 8:33.02 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

1. It does appear that the mortality rate is below 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
2. Italy and Iran has now both exceeded over two thousand cases and I suspect the number will continue to grow. They now have similar mortality rates at 3.15% & 3.16%
3. The United States now has the highest mortality rate at 7.05%. This could be because 1) the disease hit a particularly vulnerable population at a nursing home, and 2) we may be far from having this under control and have not properly located, tested and contained all the cases out there.
   1. This article from The Guardian is worth a read: Washington state residents frustrated

On the graph at the top of this post, the top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 51,026 out of 94,250 cases (and 3,214 deaths). The bottom line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China)

Other Notes:

1. The cruise ship figure is interesting as it is a more contained environment. Japan quarantined 3,711 passengers and crew from the Diamond Princess. Of those 706 tested positive for Coronavirus and now six have died.
2. The CSSE database is double counting some cases. For example there are 706 cases that tested positive on the cruise ships, 44 of them were shipped to the U.S. I believe their database counts those 44 among the 706 on the cruise ship and counts those 44 among the 128 in the U.S. If this is the case then the revised mortality statistics for the U.S. is 10.71% (removing those 44 cases).
3. It is worthwhile to read the comments by “Ulenspiegel” posted to my previous post.

Mortality Rates update 2