U.S. Population Growth for 2019 – The Dupuy Institute

The U.S. population grew 1.5 million in 2018 up to 328 million. This is around 0.5% growth rate. Over a third of that growth was immigrants.

Immigration in 2019 was 595,000 people, down from around 1 million in 2016. Guessing this refers to legal immigrants.

This is from an AP article: With births down, U.S. had slowest growth rate in the century

This is all related to our various discussions on demographics:

Demographics of the United States

For those following this subject for political interest, the projected votes swings by state after the 2020 census will be:

“Blue” states (tend to vote Democratic):

California – 1 representative and electoral college vote

Colorado: +1

Oregon: +1

Illinois: -1

Minnesota: -1

New York: -1

Rhode Island: -1

Total = -3

Swing states:

Florida: +2

Michigan: -1

Ohio: -1

Pennsylvania: -1

Total: = -1

“Red” states (tend to vote Republican):

Texas: +3

Arizona: +1

Montana: +1

North Carolina: +1

Alabama: -1

West Virginia: -1

Total = +4

Anyhow, we tend to avoid “politics” on this blog, but these changes are worth noting.

Well, it won’t kick in until 2022….but it could mean that there will be up to four more Republican’s in the house. But there are many twists and turns along the way. For example, California is controlled by a Democratic governor and Democratic legislative body. So when they redrawn the 53 legislative districts down to 52, they may be able to carefully draw the lines so that the lost district is Republican. In the case of Texas, the +3 districts gained may also not all go to Republicans. The Gerrymandering fights in Texas have been infamous over the years and ended up in the courts multiple time.

Now, it will make a clear difference in the 2024 presidential election, because the system is winner take all by state. So, as long as the Republicans can take the majority of the vote in Texas, then they will get all three additional electoral college votes.

Now, this difference may not matter. Only one election since 1876 has been decided by close to only 4 electoral college votes (this was Bush vs Gore in 2000 with 271 to 266 with 1 abstention).

America likes complex games (like American Football).

2 Comments

Clinton Reilly

January 1, 2020 / 2:42 am Reply

I don’t know much about the US electoral system but the swings you list seem to mean a total of -4 for Democrats and Swing states against a +4 for Democrats. Does this suggest that there is more likely to be a Republican victory in the Presidential election?
- Christopher A. Lawrence
  
  January 1, 2020 / 10:10 am Reply
  
  Well, it won’t kick in until 2022….but it could mean that there will be up to four more Republican’s in the house. But there are many twists and turns along the way. For example, California is controlled by a Democratic governor and Democratic legislative body. So when they redrawn the 53 legislative districts down to 52, they may be able to carefully draw the lines so that the lost district is Republican. In the case of Texas, the +3 districts gained may also not all go to Republicans. The Gerrymandering fights in Texas have been infamous over the years and ended up in the courts multiple time.
  
  Now, it will make a clear difference in the 2024 presidential election, because the system is winner take all by state. So, as long as the Republicans can take the majority of the vote in Texas, then they will get all three additional electoral college votes.
  
  Now, this difference may not matter. Only one election since 1876 has been decided by close to only 4 electoral college votes (this was Bush vs Gore in 2000 with 271 to 266 with 1 abstention).
  
  America likes complex games (like American Football).