Deja Vu all over again

Afghan police in training, 5 October 2010 (taken by William A. Lawrence II)

Recent article on Afghan troop size: https://news.yahoo.com/afghan-troop-numbers-drop-sharply-040851162.html

A few points from the article:

  1. There are now 42,000 less troops reported for the Afghan security forces.
  2. U.S. has 14,000 troops there
    1. Of those, 9,000 involved in training, advising and assisting Afghan security forces.
  3. “The change was part of an effort by the United States and its partners to reduce opportunities for corrupt ANDSF officials to report ‘ghost’ (nonexistent) soldiers and police on personnel rolls in orders to pocket the salaries.”

A few observations:

  1. Didn’t we have the same issue in Vietnam (1965-1973) with the South Vietnamese Army?
  2. Our analysis of counterinsurgency efforts focused on force ratios and the political concept behind the insurgency. This does affect the force ratios (see America’s Modern Wars).
  3. It is good that we are correcting this, but we are in our 18th year of this war. What were we doing the previous 17?
  4. Does this again establish that: “The real lesson from history is that no one learns any lessons from history.”
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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.

Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.

His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) and The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019)

Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

Articles: 1455

2 Comments

  1. It might illustrate that the lessons that a person learns from history get applied by that person within the Kohlberg Stage of Moral Development at which the person is mostly/currently operating. Some will learn lessons from history on how to better pocket salaries (an example of someone operating at Stage 2). During the previous 17 years, “we” were also operating at various stages of moral development (and negotiating among ourselves along with countering each other) to do it “our” way! Read more about it:

    https://owlcation.com/social-sciences/Lawrence-Kohlbergs-Six-Stages-of-Moral-Development

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Kohlberg%27s_stages_of_moral_development

    http://mdeering.weebly.com/lawrence-kohlberg.html

  2. Western methods of organisation do not seem to work in Afghanistan. The Soviets had the same problem with retention of Afghan troops.

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