This blog reported in July that the end of stealth might be near. Further evidence comes with Aviation Week’s interview with Fred Kennedy, the lead of the Tactical Technology Office (TTO) at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) reveals key elements of the debates within the US defense community, specifically about stealth.
“We have been doubling down on the miracle of stealth for forty years. … There are diminishing returns to using the same tactic. I don’t think there is a lot of advantage to going further into this particular tactic of stealth.” Rather, DARPA suggests what they call “un-deterable air presence. … You’re going to see me coming, since I won’t be stealthy, and you’re going to shoot at me, but you’re not going to hit anything. An example is hypersonics.”
Meanwhile, Air Force Chief of Staff General Dave Goldfein is looking at the network approach, sometimes called combat cloud. ”When you look at — through the lens of the network — and you look at air superiority as a mission, as a family-of-systems approach, you can see why you don’t hear me talking a lot about a replacement, A for B.”
This indicates that several programs which are underway to consider building new stealth aircraft might be facing an uphill battle to convince the Air Force, DARPA and Department of Defense (DoD):
- Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD)
- Penetrating Counter Air (PCA)
- F/A-XX
So, does this mean that stealth is near its end? A few key facts illustrate otherwise:
- Significant investment in new stealthy platforms, worldwide.
- US F-117 – in service from 1983 to 2008
- US B-2 – in service since 1997
- US F-22 – in service 2005-Dec, first combat 2014-Sep
- F-35 Program – first combat by Israeli Air Force, 2018-May
- US B-21 Program – expected to enter service by 2025
- British Tempest – concept announced 2018-July
- Franco-German Future Combat Air System (FCAS)
- Japanese X-2 Shinshin – costly, but may proceed with partners
- Korean & Indonesian KF-X – expected by 2032
- Turkish & British TF-X – first flight by 2023 ?
- Chinese J-20 – in serial production since 2017-Oct
- Chinese J-31 – improved version, first flight 2016-Dec
- Chinese H-20 – strategic stealth bomber, planned for 2025
- Russian Su-57 – in service, combat evaluation in Syria
- Russian PAK DA Program – bomber planned for 2025-2030
- Research projects by DARPA that leverage existing stealthy platforms.
- Evidence that stealth capabilities by potential adversaries are overstated.
Clearly then, stealth is a capability that is here to stay, and many new aircraft with incorporate it into their design. The point that DARPA’s Kennedy makes is that potential adversaries know this tactic, and they are investing in ways to counter it. Stealth is no longer a source of technological surprise, it is mainstream. It was original and likely the source of significant surprise in 1983!
