Retired Major General “Spider” Marks was on CNN this morning. He did not buy into the estimate of Mosul being taken in two-three months.
I suspect the duration will be driven by three or four factors:
- How serious of a fight ISIL puts up in the areas in front of and around Mosul. I don’t think they will, as this is where they are going to get unfavorable exchanges and take considerable losses. So far it does not seem like they are putting up that serious of resistance.
- How many people they decide to leave behind in Mosul. In the Second Battle of Fallujah (2004) the insurgents may have left behind less than a thousand fighters. Don’t have the stats at hand for the other battles. I would be surprised if they leave more.
- How aggressive the Iraqi Army is. How hard do they work to finish this off. There is probably a trade-off between time and casualties, so there is a reason to take their time. On the other hand, political leaders usually prefer quick victories.
- What is their level of competence.