A series of articles over the last week or so that seems to have bits and pieces as to what are the strength of forces around Mosul. They are:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/16/politics/us-troops-mosul-base/index.html
http://time.com/4485212/iraq-mosul-isis-baghdadi-united-nations/
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37353081
The estimates they provide include:
- Could began next month (October)
- There are 3,000 to 4,5000 ISIS fighters in Mosul.
- Their forces are estimated at between 3,000 and 9,000
- “…20,000 to 30,000 Iraqi troops expected to be used in the campaign….”
- “…could take another two months.”
- And there is the Pershmerga (Kurdish forces)
- “…but might not enter central districts to avoid aggravating political sensitivities.”
- And perhaps Shiite militias (the Hashid Shaabi)
- The Peshmerga general has 23,000 men under his command
So….40,000 to 60,000 or more Iraqi, Peshmerga and Hashid Shaabi versus 3,000 to 9,000 ISIL fighters.
Our previous posts on the subject, dating back to July, include the following estimates (check the category “Iraq”)
- The U.S. has 5,000 troops in Iraq.
- 5,000 or so fighters inside Mosul.
- There are also ISIL fighters outside of Mosul.
- The Islamic States has roughly 19,000 to 25,000 fighters, about half in Iraq and half in Syria.
- Most of the 10,000 to 12,000 in Iraq are concentrated around Mosul, in the Tal Afar area, and elsewhere in Nineveh Province.
- The Anbar Sunnis can contribute at most 10,000 soldiers to the Mosul effort.
- IS fighters in Mosul vary from a few thousand to not more than 10,000.
- Retaking Mosul would require 80,000 men, of whom 15,000 are expect to come from Shiite militias.
- Might happen in October
- Campaign needs 20,000 to 30,000 troops
- A few thousand police and 15,000 local fighters to hold land after assault.
- Up to 10,000 jihadists are in the city.
I guess that is the best we can do from open sources right now.
